Throughout 2025, global markets faced challenges due to fluctuations in monetary policies and an uncertain economic environment. Despite this, the overall picture shows moderate European economies, allowing for a gradual recovery.
The European Central Bank (ECB) adjusted its interest rate in the first quarter of 2025 and again in June, lowering it from 3% to 2%. The euro has shown significant strength since the beginning of the year, appreciating against most of the world’s major currencies. Notably, it has gained 13.4% year-to-date (YTD) against the US dollar, the most important currency cross. This upward trend persisted in the second quarter, with the euro appreciating an additional 6.6% against the US dollar, reinforcing its dominant performance in global currency markets.
The US has increased tariffs significantly on all countries, following ‘Liberation Day’. The purpose of US policy is wider than reducing the US trade deficit or raising revenue for tax cuts. It encompasses the rivalry between the US and China (which may extend to the EU), products considered critical for national and economic security, and supply chain vulnerabilities. It will continue to be a key macro driver
The current US tariff framework is as follows:
50% tariffs on global steel and aluminium imports, 20% on copper (from 1 August), 25% autos and auto parts, and 25% on non-free trade agreement goods from Canada and Mexico, with the UK holding a possible exemption. A 10% “reciprocal” tariff on all countries excl. Canada and Mexico. A large share of imports is exempt from the tariffs, e.g., various electronic products. There is a 90-day pause on additional country-specific tariffs for all countries (expiry 10 July) ex China which has been rolled to 1 August
46% tariffs on imports from China, with a 90-day pause on additional tariffs (expiry 12 August 2025). Uncertainty remains very high, both for US trade policy and retaliatory measures from other countries, including the possibility of measures expanding to target trade in services, foreign income on US assets, export controls, etc. This uncertainty, itself, also has important macro and micro impacts
In this environment, the Pensions Caixa 2, F.P. Fund has achieved a negative return of -0.4% in 2025. The annualized return over 5 years stands at 5.9%, above the target of 5.0% and the 3.5% CPI, demonstrating consistent performance against both indicators. Compared to other pension funds in the Employment System and the Associated System, the Pensions Caixa 2, F.P. Fund remains among the top 5% of funds over 5 and 10 years in Spain. This solid performance reflects an investment strategy that continues to generate long-term value consistently.
In conclusion, the Pensions Caixa 2, F.P. Fund has continued to demonstrate favourable progress, achieving returns above the established objectives, despite market volatility. This performance reflects the success of an investment strategy that continues to deliver consistent long-term value. The outlook for 2025 and beyond remains positive, with dynamic markets that will continue to respond to monetary policies and global economic adjustments. Despite short-term volatility, the medium and long-term projections remain favourable for investors with a diversified strategy.